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The Economist has a great survey this week on the future of manufacturing with some really interesting articles on short-run digital manufacturing, labor arbitrage opportunities (potentially moving manufacturing back from China), and collaborative manufacturing in the age of collaborative consumption.

Overall as with their recent interest 3D printing, these guys seem very bullish on the future of additive manufacturing technologies such as FDM and SLA. One interesting fact mentioned a few times is that the percentage of finished parts coming out of additive machines (where you deposit or solidify a powder/polymer/etc in a sort of 3D inkjet process) is up to 20-28% for final use parts as opposed to prototype use case which have been the main purview of these manufacturing techniques for a couple of decades now. From prosthetic limbs to airplane parts it turns out that increasingly the benefits of the accuracy of a computer model when combined with the precision of a finely controlled 3D printer is finding its way into mainstream products.

Despite the success of the fantastic entrepreneurs at companies like Makerbot, the mainstream use case is still elusive. At HP we used to wonder whether 3D fabrication through additive techniques would follow the inkjet distribution model (one in every home) or the service provider one (which remains one of the few growth areas in conventional ink on paper printing). The arguments for the latter are clear: more expensive machinery amortized over greater demand that can be kept in better shape by trained operators. But then again such was the argument for mainframes and minicomputers before the advent of the PC.

One thing I do wish they'd covered in the survey was the advances in subtractive manufacturing technologies because of digital design and the dropping costs of computation in general. Though modern forms of milling may be less sexy than the Star Trek replicator fantasies induced by the promise of 3D printing, the fine folks at MIT's Center for Bits and Atoms have all but convinced me of the relevance of subtractive techniques especially when it comes to near term hobbyist applications. I'll have more to say about those (and specifically about custom electronics) in posts to come.

The final point I'll mention from the survey is how generally optimistic and "lean forward" the promise of bringing the advantages of computing into the physical world through these new (or recently re-factored) manufacturing techniques is. Compared to the recent "SoLoMo" malaise (brilliantly covered by Alexis Madrigal in the Atlantic this week), it is a breath of fresh air.

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First let me get this out of the way though: I love Kickstarter. As content, it is a geek's version of InStyle magazine— something you can mindlessly browse in front of the television while "trying on" the various projects you might buy into. What's more, at $300M of capital committed thus far, there is no way that it is not a fantastic platform for artisans and other types of makers.

Having said that, it bothers me that everyone seems hell bent on describing Kickstarter as the next step in the evolution of funding for new ventures, or more specifically, in referring to it as the next step in crowdfunding.

To me Kickstarter seems a lot more like Groupon in its essence. To see why it is worth considering Groupon not as the juggernaut for local business marketing that it seems to be but as a clever financing instrument for putting money in the hands of cash-strapped small businesses. Looked at from this perspective here is what Groupon is: a small business loan financed by consumers and collateralized by the future goods/services/etc. provided by the business. As the loan originator, Groupon has historically taken a monster commission (though that may be changing).

Similarly, Kickstarter is a loan to the maker financed by his customers and collateralized by the promise of future goods/services/etc. It is brilliant in its execution, relying on the power of the network to aggregate the lenders across geography in a way that ought to provide Kickstarter with more scale and network effects that Groupon has ever had (due to its local dependency). It is clever in how it price discriminates based on sponsorship "level" allowing consumers the ability to self select into buckets of passion for a particular product (the Medicis of 15th century Renaissance Italy would be proud).

But here is the key bit: when I "fund" the Pebble watch, I am in no way funding the project in the traditional equity finance model. That is, I don't get the right to a piece of the future cash flows of the business in the same way that I would if I were to find a company to invest in on AngelList. It may be semantics here (after all, "I just loaned money to X" sounds much less cool) but in an era when so many of the funding models for new ventures are truly being democratized, distinguishing between equity products and credit products might be worthwhile.

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The Stacks, they are a pain. If you've never heard the term, it is in reference to the walled gardens controlled by Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft. Credit goes to sci-fi author/futurist Bruce Sterling who used it in his closing SXSW keynote this year. Here it is from the horse's mouth:

"[There's] a new phenomena that I like to call the Stacks [vertically integrated social media]. And we've got five of them -- Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft. The future of the stacks is basically to take over the Internet and render it irrelevant. They're not hostile to the Internet -- they're just [looking after] their own situation. And they all think they'll be the one Stack... and render the others irrelevant.

While I whole heartedly agree with his characterization of the Stacks's intent, I am not sure they are all equally bad or competent at locking everyone else out. Witness the greatest offender: Apple. For me iTunes is so broken these days that its core functionality has been completely unbundled by better alternatives. I get my music from Spotify or Pandora. I listen to podcasts via iCatcher. In both cases the network has enabled a different kind of design center which allows third parties to beat the native apps on the Stack.

In some cases you truly are stuck on the Stack. I use iCloud (which is in most ways terrible) because it backs up my iDevices in a way nothing else can. I also use iCloud to sync my bookmarks and photos. I could use Chrome and rely on Google's Stack to sync my bookmarks but I don't because it is not "better enough" than what is native to the Stack (Safari). However I'd gladly use something to sync my photos if— like iPhoto— it could sync natively the photos taken from all of my devices.

In case it is not clear, I love the concept of the Stacks. I just think we ought to get a lot more granular about the places in the different Stacks that are still viable attack surfaces for the creativity of third parties. These may change quickly as the Stacks grow and extend into popular use cases but one thing that can't be denied is that the folks that exploit the openings (Dropbox, Evernote, Instapaper as examples) create tons of value along the way.

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The Girls Around app fiasco is breaking a story (long in coming) about the implications of the data exhaust we create on social networks being something that could be put to somewhat questionable use. Four Square, the primary vector for location in this particular case, has shut them down already and the news cycle is such that this broke at a point where it will probably fail to jump from the tech press to the mainstream early next week, but this is by no means the last we've heard of this particular story. For the best summary of both it and its implications, there is no one better than Charlie Stross, not only one of the best sci-fi guys around but a particular shrewd commentator on all things technology as well.

While we will see it come up again (especially before Facebook's IPO) the need to bring privacy to the forefront of the discussion with regular users will not go away if most of this data gets hidden behind the application silos and removed from the API. In fact, as the "Target knowns if you are pregnant before you do" scandal showed, it turns out that this kind of thing can happen even when you don't realize that you are "the product" because your primary relationship with the business is one where your eyes are sold to ad units. Even if you are buying something you walk out of the store with, if what you do generates database rows, it can be used against your best interests.

Data exhaust will likely be one of the most important externalities we'll have to deal with in the coming decade and whether we like it or not, the advances in predictive analytics and "big data" is only likely to exacerbate the problem. It's good to keep that in mind as we give up vertical pixels to Google's attempts to mine who we are on their front page (yes that is the heinous bar at the top) and fork over loads of preference/curation/purchase data to some of the other web stacks.

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The iPad 3 adheres to the old saw in technology that there is magic in version 3. While it is true that this is in part due to how wonderfully rich the app ecosystem has become, from a pure hardware perspective, the combination of a 264 dpi display and a lightning fast cellular network is about as magical as the many reviews have claimed.

At HP, the ink and paper crowd was always obsessed with what was known as the "300 dpi barrier," the thought being that until affordable displays got there, there would still be plenty of room for consumers printing the stuff that wasn't going to get stuck to the refrigerator. From my perspective, the pre retina iPad had already eliminated that for most of the universe of printable disposable content, but this new display has killed one of the last bastions of the printed page: the mixed content (text & graphs), multi-column, full page (usually) PDF document. Just this weekend I was reading a Comscore report with a number of tables & graphs and for the first time ever, I didn't feel the need to print any part of it out. Incidentally, this was the market for the Kindle DX but unfortunately that device was never general purpose enough to merit its price tag.

And on the network side, it is hard to explain the improvement until you experience it. Or rather, it is easy to conceptually understand the impact of more bandwidth, and slightly less easy but still possible to grok lower latency. But LTE feels ever better than the sum of those two factors. Quite simply it just feels more immediate. Struck by what the cause might be for this, I spent a little time poking around the Qualcomm site and came across this paper (consumed on the retina display of course) that argued that startup time from a "cold modem" (one which starts from an idle state) is quite a bit faster on an LTE connection than on a HSPDA (3G) one (about 3X), driven largely by improvements in signaling. And while it is true that most tablets live and die on wifi (92% of data traffic according to Comscore is coming from Wifi connections as opposed to 25-50% for smartphones), I think the speed of this modem may be about to begin to change that particular "leave at home" use pattern.

In fact, for the first time since the launch of the original iPad, I am now convinced that we've got a fundamentally different platform for which a new class of productivity applications ought to emerge. Something like the new iPhoto but on steroids since it should go way beyond leveraging the direct manipulation interface to using both the resolution of the display and the network in new and unexpected ways. It's too early to tell but my money is on new types of collaborative applications that leverage the high pixel density to navigate large datasets and the realtime nature of persistent and lightning-fast connectivity to put the collaboration in environments where users have been forced on "batch" mode for compute resources. Architects, field folks, and even presenters at conferences are a few of the examples I can think of for starters.

Finally, it bears mentioning that the iPad3 will likely not remain the only entrant (nor even necessarily the dominant entrant) in the market now that it has defined the spec that everyone else needs to hit now that it has, at least in my mind, validated the category as more than a portable television crossed with a poor man's laptop.

I am sold. Down with laptops and up with the strokable slates!

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